Can You Afford That New Truck? How Scenario Planning with AI Helps Home Builders Make Smarter Decisions

Introduction:

Home builders often face big financial decisions, buying a new truck, adding equipment, or planning for rising material costs. But knowing whether you can afford something (and how it will impact your cash flow or taxes) isn’t always straightforward. In this blog post, Jon Markee, your Builder CPA, walks through how scenario planning with AI tools like ChatGPT can help builders make clearer, more confident financial decisions.

Understanding the Real Question: “Can I Afford It?”

Many home builders come to Jon with the same question: Can I afford to buy a new truck? Or maybe it’s a new skid steer, trailer, or piece of equipment. They also want to know if their tax situation would improve through accelerated depreciation or Section 179.

These aren’t simple yes-or-no questions. They require cash flow forecasting, debt analysis, and an understanding of how new payments will affect your financial picture. This is where scenario planning becomes extremely valuable, and surprisingly accessible.

Putting ChatGPT to Work: A Real Example

Jon recently ran a scenario using ChatGPT to determine whether a builder could afford an $80,000 truck financed over 60 months at 10% interest.

ChatGPT analyzed the numbers and provided:

• A 13-week cash flow forecast (based on available historic data)

• Confirmation that the business would stay cash-positive over the forecast period

• Total loan cost over five years

• Total interest paid

• Expected monthly payment

• Key assumptions (such as financing 100% of the truck with no taxes, fees, or down payment included)

While the tool only had enough data to forecast 13 weeks, the early results still helped the builder understand short-term cash impact and what to consider before committing.

Additional Factors AI Helps You Evaluate

ChatGPT didn’t just stop at the payment schedule, it also recommended several smart checkpoints before signing off on any major purchase:

• Operating Costs: Registration, fuel, insurance, and ongoing maintenance.

• Bank Covenants: Ensuring the new debt won’t violate your lending or line-of-credit terms.

• Cash Buffer Targets: Determining how much you need to keep in reserve after adding new debt.

• Extended Forecasting: Offering to expand the projection to 6–12 months or include a full amortization schedule.

This level of detail helps builders avoid surprises and make fully informed decisions.

Scenario Planning Beyond Trucks

Big purchases aren’t the only reason to run a “what if” analysis. ChatGPT can also help answer questions such as:

• What happens if material costs increase by 5%?

• How will rising interest rates impact my cash flow?

• What if a project finishes late or a payment is delayed?

• Can I afford to hire another crew member?

These scenarios help you prepare for uncertainties and manage your business proactively rather than reactively.

Conclusion

Major financial decisions, like purchasing a new truck, require more than a gut feeling. With tools like ChatGPT and proper guidance from your Builder CPA, you can forecast cash flow, evaluate debt, and understand the full financial picture before committing.

Use scenario planning to your advantage. The more you test different outcomes, the more confident and prepared you’ll be when making strategic decisions that impact your business.

As always, thanks for watching, and have a great day!